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,Fortress Capital Asset Management Sdn Bhd CEO Thomas Yong questioned if monetary policy could be effective when inflationary pressures are largely stemmed from supply disruptions rather than unexpected demand growth.

THE US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) aggressive interest rate hike may have brought some certainty regarding its inflation control, but has also thrown up challenges to strike a fine balance and avoid a hard landing.

As the Fed may have been too late to raise rates, the challenge now is also to grapple with the possible onset of recession and the lack of room for rate cuts.

Could the coming July hike of possibly 0.5% be the last as incoming data begins to reflect a likely negative print for second quarter gross domestic product (GDP) growth, against the negative print for first quarter growth?

With more aggressive Fed rate hikes, the risks of a US recession have risen; finding the right level of rates is a challenge as it should be effective in curbing inflation and yet not choke off the economy.

Fortress Capital Asset Management Sdn Bhd CEO Thomas Yong questioned if monetary policy could be effective when inflationary pressures are largely stemmed from supply disruptions rather than unexpected demand growth.

The risk of over-tightening has increased, as the Fed is increasingly reacting to monthly data points on headline (raw inflation data that includes highly volatile numbers) Consumer Price Index inflation, surveys of inflation expectations, breakeven inflation rates in the near term rather than medium to long term, as well as supply side shocks.

Before the Fed can even reach normalised rates, the next US recession (which could be reminiscent of the severe recession in the early 1980s) may have started, according to former Inter-Pacific Securities head of research Pong Teng Siew.

“There is more room for accidents, while the balance of risks is skewed towards below-trend economic growth in the United States in 2023, with spillover effects onto the global economy,” said RHB Bank group chief economist Sailesh K. Jha in a report.

Before the Fed can even reach normalised rates, the next US recession (which could be reminiscent of the severe recession in the early 1980s) may have started, according to former Inter-Pacific Securities head of research Pong Teng Siew.

The Atlanta Fed had reduced the second quarter GDP growth forecast to 0%, while the Philadelphia composite business outlook index reported a plunge into negative territory.

The recovery from the next recession may not look good.

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